[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 31 09:13:56 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 155/109


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind continued its upward trend from late in the 
UT day yesterday, and it appears the Earth has entered the last 
arm of the "W" shaped coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased 
from 400 to 600km/sec over the past 24 hours. The north-south 
component of the IMF was briefly 10nT southward at the start 
of the UT day, then turned mostly neutral. Solar regions that 
produced the recent C class xray events appear to have quietened. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Unsettled to Active

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3233 3335
      Darwin              15   4233 333-
      Townsville          13   3233 3335
      Learmonth            -   ---- ---5
      Canberra            20   3234 4444
      Hobart              13   3332 ----
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAR : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             27   5543 4434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
01 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further 
active periods expected next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected next two to three days at 
mid to high latitudes. Depressed MUFs may be experienced after local
dawn.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    90    depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to 
                enhanced 15% 
01 Apr    90    depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to 
                enhanced 15% 
02 Apr    90    depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to 
                enhanced 15% 
COMMENT: Further degradation periods possible local night hours 
and after local dawn for southern Aus/NZ region sites. Northern 
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly 
values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:   13.1 p/cc  Temp:    47400 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



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