[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 31 09:13:56 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind continued its upward trend from late in the
UT day yesterday, and it appears the Earth has entered the last
arm of the "W" shaped coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased
from 400 to 600km/sec over the past 24 hours. The north-south
component of the IMF was briefly 10nT southward at the start
of the UT day, then turned mostly neutral. Solar regions that
produced the recent C class xray events appear to have quietened.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 3233 3335
Darwin 15 4233 333-
Townsville 13 3233 3335
Learmonth - ---- ---5
Canberra 20 3234 4444
Hobart 13 3332 ----
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAR :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27 5543 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
01 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
02 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Active periods observed over past 24 hours. Further
active periods expected next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected next two to three days at
mid to high latitudes. Depressed MUFs may be experienced after local
dawn.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 90 depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to
enhanced 15%
01 Apr 90 depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to
enhanced 15%
02 Apr 90 depressed 15% to near normal/ near normal to
enhanced 15%
COMMENT: Further degradation periods possible local night hours
and after local dawn for southern Aus/NZ region sites. Northern
Aus region MUFs expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly
values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 13.1 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list