[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 21 10:44:13 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 1131UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Region 314 produced a high C-class and low M-class flare
at 0221 and 1130UT respectively. Both were impulsive in natutre.
No radio sweeps were reported in association with these events
and no CME was observed in available LASCO imagery. This region
is now at the extreme west solar limb, but could produce further
M class activity today. The present high speed coronal hole wind
stream effects are expected to decline after today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 2334 4433
Darwin 19 2334 4433
Townsville 20 2334 4444
Learmonth 26 2334 5543
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 23 1345 4434
Casey(Ant) 19 3--4 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAR :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 4433 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 20 active
22 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to active conditions were observed at all
latitudes under the influence of the present high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Minor storm conditions observed briefly at
high latitudes during the middle part of the UT day. This may
have been a result of enhanced solar wind parameters, which was
possibly the anticipated minor shock signature from recent X-calss
flare activity. Coronal hole wind stream effects are expected
to decline after today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption was observed at mid to high latitudes
due to proton flux enhancement following recent X-class solar
flares. Periods of disturbance were observed at all latitudes
due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric
depressions observed at all latitudes overnight and after local
dawn today. Coronal hole effects are expected to decline after
21 Mar. There is a possibility of SWF's today due to recent solar
flare activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 65 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
22 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As coronal hole wind stream effects persist into today,
generally lower than normal MUFs are anticipated. Southern Aus/Antarctic
regions can expect extended periods of disturbance in association
with geomagnetic activity. Coronal hole wind stream effects are
expected to decline after today. Short wave fadeouts are possible
due to enhanced proton flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 699 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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