[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind currently at around 600km/sec. An extended 
period of elevated solar wind speed may be experienced as the 
large coronal hole currently causing elevated wind speed conditions 
appears to be "Y" shaped. We are currently in the wind stream 
from the first branch of the "Y". Solar wind speed may show some 
decline between the branches of the "Y", before returning to 
elevated values. SOHO EIT imagery shows a bright new region on 
the north-east limb of the Sun. Culgoora H-alpha is clouded out 
at the time of issue of this report. In addition solar region 
314 in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk is showing growth. 
Isolated M class flare activity possible. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   4344 4333
      Darwin              20   4334 4333
      Townsville          20   4334 4333
      Learmonth           21   4334 4433
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              21   4344 4332
      Casey(Ant)          30   5553 4332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           45   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             126   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             25   2244 6343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    18    active 
17 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced activity again observed overnight. 
Activity is expected to decline over next few days then return 
to active-minor storm conditions (19-20 Mar) due to "Y" shaped 
coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded HF conditions are probable 
for mid-high latitudes for today, particularly local night hours, 
Then improving. A return to degraded conditions is expected around 
19-20 Mar. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    85    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar   100    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity again observed 
overnight. Mild depressions observed after local dawn for southern 
region Australia. Northern region MUFs are not expected to be 
affected, and communicators in northern Aus region should use 
a T index of 120. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 595 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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