[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 125/78

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             145/99
COMMENT:  The solar activity was low today. A few low 
level C-class flares were observed, the largest being 
a  C1.7 at  0628UT from region 293(S19E21). The solar 
wind  speed   gradually decreased  from approximately
500 km/s to  440 km/s during the UTday by the time of 
writing this report. The north-south component of the 
inter-planetary magnetic field showed mild fluctuations 
between north and south directions throughout the UTday. 
The coronal hole acitivity seems to be showing a decline 
now. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3224 3433
      Darwin              16   3224 3433
      Townsville          16   3224 343-
      Learmonth           13   2223 3433
      Canberra            13   3124 3333
      Hobart              13   3124 3333
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            79   (Active)
      Hobart              82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 
indices are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for 
that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22   4433 4434     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
02 Mar    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
03 Mar     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to slow down 
from 'unsettled' today to 'mostly quiet' for a few days 
thereafter, as the coronal hole activity is declining now. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradation in HF conditions may be 
observed at mid and high latitudes on UT day 01 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Feb    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    90    near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar    95    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
03 Mar   100    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT:  IPS HF  Communications  Warning 12 was issued on 
28 February and is current for interval 1 March only.  The 
HF conditions  are  expected  to  remain  mostly normal in 
Australian/NZ regions on UT day 28 February, 2003. However, 
periods  of  minor/moderate  depressions  in  MUFs  may be 
observed  in the Southern Australian/NZ regions during this 
period of time. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal for a few days thereafter. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   276000 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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