[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently moderately elevated due 
to solar coronal holes, and is expected to remain elevated over 
the next few days. Yet another coronal hole appears to be rotating 
around the east limb of the sun, visible in SOHO EIT284 imagery 
and SEC SXI imagey.The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward 5nT over past 24 hours. The 
Sun has been relatively quiet again over the past 24 hours. Isolated 
M class flares are possible from regions 386, 387 and 388. Region 
386 has shown substantial decay over last two days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2233 1342
      Darwin              11   2232 1343
      Townsville           9   2232 1332
      Learmonth           13   2232 1442
      Canberra            12   2233 1342
      Hobart              12   2233 1342
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 23-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             23   4453 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
24 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
25 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected 
to cause elevated background geomgnetic activity over the coming 
week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradion periods possible at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jun    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values, 
      some spread F observed,


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun    65    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected over coming days, restricted 
to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus region MUFs expected 
to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   MSG
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  MSG
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
       X-ray background: MSG
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 534 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   221000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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