[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.3    2357UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Previously X-class flare producing region 365 is rotating 
around the east limb and is expected to produce M- and X-class 
flare activity over the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   4332 3334
      Darwin              13   3332 3334
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           15   3--- ----
      Canberra            15   3332 43--
      Hobart              --   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)          16   4432 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUN : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             32   3455 4554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    20    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
17 Jun    16    Unsettled 
18 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active and minor storm periods continued during 
15 June as the result of recent CME and coronal hole activity. 
Isolated active and possible minor storm periods are again possible 
for 16 June with conditions becoming mostly unsettled to active 
for 17-18 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times for 16 June 
as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. SWFs are 
expected over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    75    Enhanced 5-10% to depressed 5-15% at times. 
17 Jun    80    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
18 Jun    80    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times for 16 June 
as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. SWFs are 
expected over the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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