[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6 12/2127UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M3.1    0204UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7/SF    0437UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8/SF    0645UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             130/84             120/72
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar 
regions 375 and 380. 
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 365 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 15 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 1223
      Darwin               5   2221 1123
      Townsville           3   1111 12--
      Learmonth            4   2211 0223
      Canberra             2   1100 0123
      Hobart               2   0101 0122
      Casey(Ant)           7   2221 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2232 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun    16    Unsettled to active 
15 Jun    16    Unsettled to active 
16 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active and isolated minor storm periods are possible 
for the next two days as the result of glancing blows from recent 
CME activity and a possible increase in solar wind speed from 
a small coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Slight depressions are expected at times over the next 
two days as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    75    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
15 Jun    75    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
16 Jun    80    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 12 June 
and is current for interval 12-14 June (SWFs) . Slight depressions 
are expected at times over the next two days as the result of 
anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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