[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 7 09:46:31 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Minor C-class flare activity was observed today, with
region 375 being the most significant active solar region. A
number of Type III radio sweeps were also reported throughout
the UT day. There is a possibility of further C- to M-class flare
activity from solar region 375, which maintains moderate magnetic
complexity. The dominant feature is still a large trans-equatorial
coronal hole, now moving into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 2233 2332
Darwin 10 2223 2333
Townsville 11 2233 2332
Learmonth 11 1223 3333
Canberra 9 2123 2332
Hobart 9 2123 2332
Casey(Ant) 14 -343 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 105 (Major storm)
Hobart 68 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 3333 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 25 active
08 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
09 Jun 25 active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased during the early part of
the UT day to a steady value around 600-650 km/s. Interplanetary
magnetic field Bz showed polarity fluctuations increasing in
amplitude and frequency later in the UT day. Geomagnetic conditions
were mostly unsettled in the Australasian region, with unsettled
to active conditions observed at high latitudes. Active conditions
are expected today and tomorrow as solar wind parameters continue
to increase due to a favourably positioned trans-equatorial coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
08 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed N Aus region. Mild
depressions observed after local dawn S Aus region. HF conditions
expected to be degraded at mid to high latitudes over next few
days due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of intense daytime sporadic-E.
Extended periods of spread-F conditions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 60 Near predicted values/enhanced equatorial/PNG
region. Near predicted monthly values with mild
overnight or post-dawn depressions Aus/NZ regions.
Generally poor conditions in Antarctic regions.
08 Jun 50 Near predicted values/enhanced equatorial/PNG
region. Near predicted monthly values with mild
overnight or post-dawn depressions Aus/NZ regions.
Generally poor conditions in Antarctic regions.
09 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight/post-dawn depressions observed N and
S Aus regions. Extensive sporadic-E and spread-F conditions observed
S Ocean/Antarctic regions. Degraded HF conditions expected next
few days due to further coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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