[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is dominated by a large southern 
hemisphere coronal hole. Region 375 in the eastern hemisphere 
is the only area of significant magnetic complexity. At present 
it appears capable of C to M class flare activity. A weak semi-halo 
CME was observed in LASCO imagery early in the UT day, with a 
stronger southwest directed ejection shortly after. These events 
were possibly associated with an eruptive feature in the southwestern 
solar sector, within the coronal hole. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3334 3333
      Darwin              15   3333 3333
      Townsville          16   3334 3332
      Learmonth           16   3334 3332
      Canberra            18   4334 3333
      Hobart              14   3224 3333
      Casey(Ant)          19   4433 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUN : 
      Townsville          28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           84   (Minor storm)
      Canberra           187   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             178   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   4344 4445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    25    active 
06 Jun    25    active 
07 Jun    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: Conditions in the Australasian region were predominantly 
quiet to unsettled with a minor storm period at high latitudes. 
Solar wind speed continues to increase, but interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuations have not been more than moderately southward 
during the past 24 hours. Coronal hole high speed wind stream 
induced activity is expected for next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high 
latitudes over next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    70    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jun    70    near predicted monthly values 
07 Jun    60    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 June 
and is current for interval 3-5 June. Northern Aus region MUFS 
have been near predicted monthly values and are expected to remain 
mostly unaffected by coronal hole high speed wind stream induced 
geomagnetic activity. Expect degraded conditions with associated 
geomagnetic activity at high latitudes for at least the next 
few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 793 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   333000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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