[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 3 08:58:37 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/SF 0022UT probable lower West Pacific
M3/SF 0837UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1/SF 1317UT possible lower European
M1/SF 1733UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Departing solar region 365 produced the M6 and M3 events.
The M6 event was associated with Type II and IV radio events.
LASCO C3 imagery shows a westward directed mass ejection (first
visible in 0142UT 02 Jun image) which is not expected to be geoeffective,
due to regions extreme westward location at time of flare. Solar
region 375 rotated further into view and US Big Bear observatory
reports that it is a compact and magnetically complex group.
This region has very good flare potential, and further flares
are expected. The upward trend in the solar wind, mentioned yesterday,
was indeed the entry into the anticipated coronal hole wind stream
with solar wind speed 650 to 800km/sec over past 24 hours. Solar
wind is expected to remain elevated for an extended period as
the coronal hole producing this wind stream is a very large "U"
shaped coronal hole (visible in SOHO EIT 284 and SEC SXI imagery)
spanning most of the southern solar hemisphere. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
southward by up to 10nT for the first half of the UT day. Bz
is currently fluctuating 5nT southward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 24 4444 4422
Darwin 25 4444 4432
Townsville 22 4444 3422
Learmonth 31 --54 4522
Canberra 22 4344 4422
Hobart 28 4355 4422
Casey(Ant) 17 4433 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUN :
Townsville 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 156 (Severe storm)
Hobart 173 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 3332 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
04 Jun 20 active
05 Jun 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 31 May and
is current for interval 2-4 June. Coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced activity expected next few days. An extended period
of active conditions is expected (possibly extending to 10 Jun)
due to very large coronal hole in southern solar hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
04 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be increasingly degraded at
mid to high latitudes as the Earth further enters the coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values,
spread F and some absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 60 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 45 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 June
and is current for interval 3-5 June. Some southern region sites
depressed 15% after local dawn. Southern region MUFs expected
to be depressed 15% after local dawn over the next few days.
Northern Aus region MUFS have been near predicted monthly values
and are expected to remin mostly unaffected by coronal hole high
speed wind stream induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 598 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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