[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 1 08:36:47 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9/2B 0224UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 100/48 90/34
COMMENT: Solar region 365 (S07W65) produced the M9 event. This
event was associated with a Type II radio sweep (observed on
the Culgoora radio spectrograph with a shock speed of 700km/sec).
Also, a weak/brief solar proton event followed this flare. Solar region
365 may produce an isolated high level flare before departing
the solar disk. A shock is expected from M9 event late 02-03
Jun. Mass ejection was not completely directed at the Earth,
glancing blow expected.The Earth is expected to enter a coronal
hole high speed wind stream on 02 Jun. Solar wind speed over
the past 24 hours declined from 800 to 600 km/sec, with no shocks
observed. Solar wind speed is likely to decline further before
increasing again some time on 02 Jun as we enter the coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 12 4431 2212
Darwin 13 4431 2223
Townsville 12 4431 2113
Learmonth 18 5531 2212
Canberra 12 4431 2110
Hobart 11 4421 2111
Casey(Ant) 22 5532 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 MAY :
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 132 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 49 8443 4545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 13 Unsettled to Active
02 Jun 20 active
03 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to declin in activity
for today, then an increasing trend of activity is expected from
02 Jun as the Earth enters a high speed wind stream from a solar
coronal hole. Also, activity may be stronger on 03 Jun, due to
the combined effects of coronal hole wind stream and anticipated
glancing blow from M9/CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0155UT 29/05, Ended at 0150UT 30/05
and, Began at 0505UT 31/05, Ended at 1505UT 31/05
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected to continue to improve
today, before returning to degraded conditions at mid to high
latitudes after 02 Jun due to coronal hole and anticipated arrival
of CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% to near normal local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed, absorption observed early in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 72
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 65 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Some mild depressions may be experienced after local
dawn this morning southern Aus/NZ region. Generaaly improving
HF conditions expected, before a return to degraded conditions
after 02 Jun for mid to high latitudes (southern Aus/NZ region).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 648 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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