[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 29 09:47:25 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: A newly emerging sunspot group in the northwest solar
sector appears to be increasing in size and magnetic complexity,
with a mixed magnetic structure developing in the central portion
of the group. The dominant solar feature is still the large coronal
hole now covering most of the southwest portion of the visible
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 3223 3333
Darwin 11 2223 3333
Townsville 13 2224 3332
Learmonth 11 2223 3333
Canberra 14 4223 3333
Hobart 11 2123 3332
Casey(Ant) 20 3333 35--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUL :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 116 (Major storm)
Hobart 175 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 5454 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 25 active
30 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
31 Jul 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 26 July and
is current for interval 27-29 July. Solar wind speed declined
over the first part of the UT day, then increased in stages over
the second half of the UT day. This profile possibly reflects
the irregular shape of the causitive coronal hole. Interplanetary
magnetic field polarity has remained close to neutral, with minor
fluctuations of about 5 nT. As a result, geomagnetic conditions
were at mostly quiet to unsettled levels at low to mid latitudes.
A period of increasing geomagnetic activity is possible for the
next two days as a section of the coronal hole extending to the
south solar pole is rotating into geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
30 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
31 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed after local dawn S. Aus/NZ
regions. Expect periods of degraded HF conditions at mid to high
latitudes for the next few days in association with coronal hole
induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 10-30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values,
Mild depressions after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Extended periods of localised disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 65 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 60 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 27 July
and is current for interval 28-29 July. Intense daytime sporadic-E
observed S. Ocean/Antarctic regions. Periods of spread-F observed
S. Aus/Antarctic regions. Expect periods of ionospheric depression
at mid to high latitudes for the next few days in association
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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