[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 26 09:31:01 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity was reported today. A
type II radio sweep was observed by Culgoora radiospectrograph
at 24/0242, in association with a C1 class flare. The probable
region of origin is region 417. A possible weak shock may arrive
early on July 27, but it appears more likely the shock will decay
to an MHD wave. Newly named active region 420 is possibly the
return of old region 397, which produced several M-class flares
on its last rotation. A narrow south-west directed CME was observed
in LASCO C3 imagery early in the UT day July 25. This was probably
a backside event from region 417.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 1232 2113
Darwin 6 1232 2113
Townsville 6 1133 2013
Learmonth 5 1232 1111
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 6 1233 2003
Casey(Ant) 9 3322 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUL :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 3210 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 20 active
28 Jul 20 active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today
in the Australasian region, with an isolated unsettled period
around 08UT at high latitudes only. A large, irregular shaped
coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere is now past central
solar meridian and high speed wind stream effects from this feature
are likely after July 26.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild overnight depressions observed at mid
latitudes. Brief periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal today. Expect
periods of degraded HF conditions at high latitudes after July
26 in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with isolated overnight
depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 85 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values.
28 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values with periods of
disturbance at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Intense daytime sporadic-E observed S. Ocean/Antarctic
regions. Expect increasing periods of disturbance at high latitudes
after July 26 in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic
disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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