[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: Not available


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   N/A/               N/A                N/A
COMMENT: Only minor C-class flares were observed today, and solar 
activity is expected to remain low for the next few days. Region 
417 is the largest and most active solar region, and it has the 
potential to produce isolated c- to M-class flares. This region 
is now close to the solar west limb, and will rotate off the 
visible disk within the next few days. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 397 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 24 Jul. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 1322
      Darwin               7   2222 1322
      Townsville           7   2222 1322
      Learmonth            6   1122 1322
      Canberra             7   2222 1321
      Hobart               7   2212 2322
      Casey(Ant)          11   2332 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        N/A
           Planetary             N/A                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        N/A
           Planetary             N/A  3123 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity continues to decline from previous 
levels. There was a transient shock observed in ACE solar wind 
parameters at 14UT, with a southward excursion in interplanetary 
magnetic field Bz reaching -10 nT and persisting for several 
hours. A subsequent isolated terrestrial major to minor magnetic 
storm period was observed at high latitudes only. origin of this 
transient is uncertain, but is possibly associated with a disappearing 
solar filament observed near central solar meridian at 21/0900. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night, and after
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    85    near predicted monthly values 
25 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 20%. 
26 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal in the Australian/NZ 
regions during the next three days. Expect periods of spread-F 
at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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