[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind continued to slowly decline now just below 440km/sec. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was mildly northward for most of the UT day. Isolated M class 
flaring possible from solar regions 397 and 400 both of which 
continued to decay. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible 
in SEC SXI imagery. The wind stream from this hole is expected 
from around 10 july. Also, a large filament in the solar north-west 
quadrant has been reported to have erupted overnight. It is unclear 
at this stage if any erupting filament material escaped the Sun. 
However, no solar radio Type II or IV sweeps (inferred mass ejection
using ground based radio observation) have been found, suggesting 
that a mass ejection may not have occured. No US LASCO data 
was available.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 1111
      Darwin               3   1111 1112
      Townsville           1   2000 1013
      Learmonth            1   0000 1111
      Canberra             0   0000 0001
      Hobart               0   0000 0000
      Casey(Ant)           4   1221 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUL : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3343 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Jul    18    active 
11 Jul    18    active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected today, then increasing to 
active conditions 10-11 July, due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today, then midly degraded 
conditions expected starting 10 July. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jul    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15-30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
10 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul    80    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today, before a return to 
mildly degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes (southern 
Aus/NZ region) starting 10 July, due to anticpated coronal hole 
wind streams. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 571 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   184000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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