[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    0032UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 700 to 500km/sec over 
the UT day as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole wind stream. 
A further decline in solar wind speed is expected today. The 
M2.3 flare was from solar region 400 (just east of solar central 
meridian) and was impulsive above the C8 level, no mass ejection 
was associated. Solar region 397 (now in north-west solar quadrant) 
only managed a few minor C class flares. Solar region 400 and 
397 are both capable of M class flare activity. A moderately 
sized isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in SEC SXI 
imagery just east of the solar central meridian. An increase 
in solar wind speed may begin around 10 July from this hole. 
No weak shock signature has been observed over past 24hours (possible 
due to a recent eastward located C7 flare and Type II radio sweep). 
There is an outside chance of a very weak shock in the solar 
wind over next 12 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 3311
      Darwin               9   2222 3321
      Townsville           9   2222 3321
      Learmonth            8   2222 3310
      Canberra             7   2222 2311
      Hobart               6   2222 2211
      Casey(Ant)          12   3332 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUL : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   4343 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Jul    12    Unsettled 
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: An overall declining trend in geomagnetic activity is 
expected over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improving HF communications conditions expected for 
mid to high latitudes as coronal hole induced effects ease. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% early in the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  62

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation for southern Aus region possible, but 
generally improving conditions as solar wind speed from recent 
coronal hole transit declines. Chance of an isolated shortwave 
fadeouts on daylight circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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