[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             130/84

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1002UT 
on 30 Jan. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   4334 4533
      Darwin              22   4224 4534
      Townsville          21   3334 3534
      Learmonth           23   4324 4533
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              24   3335 3533
      Casey(Ant)          28   44-4 5433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JAN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   2223 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    15    Unsettled to active 
01 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Feb    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                levels. 
COMMENT: A weak shock in the solar wind was observed at 1002UT 
on 30 January and was most likely the CME associated with the 
C2-flare of 27 January. Active to minor storm periods followed, 
with further active periods likely during 31 January. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions have been depressed 15-30% at times for 
30 January as the result of mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Further depressions of 15-30% are Possible at times for 31 January. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 15-30% at
      times.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan    75    Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly 
                values. 
01 Feb   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
02 Feb    90    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 30 January 
and is current for interval 31 January only. HF conditions have 
been depressed 15-30% at times for 30 January as the result of 
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. Further depressions of 
15-30% are Possible at times for 31 January. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    65300 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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