[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 27 10:46:00 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low level today. Only three
B-class and one C-class flares were recorded. The only
C-class flare, a C2.6 was produced by region 268(N15W42)
at 1040UT. Although the coronal hole effect seems to be
declining, a relatively stronger solar wind stream was
observed in the early hours today as the solar wind speed
increased from 650 km/s to 770 km/s (approx) for a few
hours. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
770 km/s to 600 km/s (approx) during the rest of the UT-day.
The north-south component of the inter-planetary magnetic
field remained mildly southwards for most part of the day.
Region 268 has shown some decay in area over the UT-day,
whereas region 266(S22W26) has shown some growth. Compared
to the other regions on the disk at the moment, region 266
and 268 have relatively higher potential to produce solar
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Mostly quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 17 3334 4323
Darwin 15 3333 4324
Townsville 17 3334 4323
Learmonth 16 3234 4323
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 15 3334 3323
Casey(Ant) 19 4-44 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JAN :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 10 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28 4455 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
28 Jan 10 Quiet to unsettled
29 Jan 8 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: High solar wind speed (in an approximate range of
600 to 770 km/s) and sustained periods of negative Bz seem
to have kept the geo-magnetic activity enhanced upto active
level today. The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at unsettled to active levels on UT day 27 January,
2002. The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decrease to unsettled to quiet levels thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: At the time of writing this report, the solar
wind speed is high and the north/south component of the
inter-planetary magnetic field remains continuously
southwards for several hours. If this trend continues
periods of enhanced geo-magnetic activity may be observed
which may result in degraded HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs at high and possibly at mid-latitudes on UTday 27
January, 2003.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 112 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%
northern Aus regions/near predicted monthly values
to depressed 5% southern Aus regions.
28 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%.
29 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%.
COMMENT: Due to a slight possibility of observing enhanced
geo-magnetic activity, minor to mild depressions in MUFs may
be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions on UT day 27 January,
2003. MUFs expected to remain normal for two days thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 750 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 283000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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