[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 420 km/sec, probably 
in association with a solar coronal hole. The sun was relatively 
quiet over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2333 3234
      Darwin              11   2332 3234
      Townsville          14   2333 3244
      Learmonth           12   3223 3334
      Canberra             7   22-- ----
      Hobart              11   2333 3223
      Casey(Ant)          21   3--4 43--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2223 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan    16    Unsettled to active 
20 Jan    18    Unsettled to active 
21 Jan    14    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 17 January and 
is current for interval 18-20 January. Coronal hole induced activity 
expected next three days. An eastward arm of this coronal hole 
is expected to produce a stronger period of activity 22-24 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jan   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mild depression early in UT day at some sites.
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan   115    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
20 Jan   110    depressed 10% southern Aus/enhanced 10-20% northern 
                Aus. 
21 Jan   100    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today for northern Aus region. 
Mild degradation expected next few days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    46000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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