[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0537UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: Solar region 242 produced a C9.8 level flare at 0127UT. 
Region 251 produced an M1 level flare at 0537UT. A narrow CME 
observed in LASCO imagery in association with the M-class flare 
does not appear earthward directed. Region 247 has shown growth 
in area. All three of these regions have M-class flare potential. 
A narrow trans-equatorial coronal hole is now in geoeffective 
longitude, and weak coronal hole wind stream effects may be experienced 
in the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1110 1133
      Darwin               5   1211 1133
      Townsville           4   1110 1133
      Learmonth            4   1110 1133
      Canberra             2   0110 1123
      Hobart               2   0110 0122
      Casey(Ant)           7   2--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jan    12    Unsettled 
12 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A trans-equatorial north-polar coronal hole is now in 
geoeffective longitude. Solar wind speed commenced an upward 
trend at 17UT. At around the same time, the north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field commenced a slight northward 
trend. If these trends continue, coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
disturbance will only be mild. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions possible 10 Jan at high latitudes. 
Otherwise generally good HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
11 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
12 Jan   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Widespread sporadic E observed at mid to high latitudes 
during local day. Good HF conditions expected today. Mild degradation 
possible at high latitudes due to anticipated weak coronal hole 
wind stream effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 278 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    13800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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