[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is expected to increase over next two 
days due to a coronal hole. Learmonth solar observatory reported 
yesterday that a small filament in region 239 just west of the 
centre of the solar disk showed some activity. Culgoora H-alpha 
imagery showed this filament disappearing beginning around 0727UT 
on 2 Jan. No CME could be easily seen in LASCO imagery. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2212 2213
      Darwin               5   2212 2214
      Townsville           5   1112 2223
      Learmonth            4   2112 2113
      Canberra             5   1222 2213
      Hobart               5   1222 2213
      Casey(Ant)          12   3--3 31--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JAN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   2233 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan    13    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
04 Jan    13    Unsettled, chance isolated active periods. 
05 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Very mild coronal hole effects on 03 and 04 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild coornal hole induced degradation possible at high 
latitudes only 03-04 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
05 Jan   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    43200 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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