[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Feb             25 Feb             26 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 290 has become quiet. Coronal hole just 
past centre of solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3222 3323
      Darwin               9   3221 3323
      Townsville           9   2222 3323
      Learmonth           10   3222 3322
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              10   2322 3322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-43 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             109   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   2323 3421     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Feb    12    Unsettled 
26 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent pattern around 25-26 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
25 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 583 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   159000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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