[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at low levels. There was a narrow, 
north-west directed CME shortly after 00UT, which was optically 
correlated with an eruptive loop prominence on the west limb, 
first observed in LASCO EIT imagery at 16/2300. The CME does 
not appear earthward directed. High speed solar wind stream effects 
from a favourably positioned coronal hole are expected to continue 
at present levels for at least the next 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3233 3223
      Darwin              12   3233 3324
      Townsville           9   2223 3223
      Learmonth           10   3223 3223
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              12   3333 3214
      Casey(Ant)          11   ---3 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             128   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   2343 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb    18    Unsettled to active 
19 Feb    18    Unsettled to active 
20 Feb    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have remained steady under the 
influence of a large, favourably positioned coronal hole. Solar 
wind speed has remained elevated at 600-650 km/s over the past 
24 hours. Bz polarity has fluctuated about neutral with a slight 
overall southward bias, resulting in isolated active periods 
at high latitudes only. Similar conditions are expected to continue 
today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
19 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Regional depressions observed during local daylight 
hours at mid-latitudes, recovering overnight. Extensive periods 
of spread-F and disturbance observed at high latitudes in association 
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with isolated
      periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb   100    Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. Aus region. Depressed 
                15-25% during local daylight hours S. Aus/NZ 
                region. Depressed 5-10% at times Antarctic region. 
19 Feb   100    Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. Aus region. Near 
                predicted monthly values S. Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
                region. 
20 Feb   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 February 
and is current for interval 17-18 February. Depressions of 20-30% 
observed yesterday and expected today at mid-latitudes in E.Aus/NZ 
region. Extended periods of spread-F conditions and local disturbance 
at high latitudes in association with coronal-hole induced geomagnetic 
disturbance. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 618 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   203000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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