[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: A long-duration C4.5 level flare occurred around 0730UT. 
Region of origin was Region 276, close to the west solar limb. 
This was optically correlated with a CME in LASCO imagery. An 
earlier eastward directed CME of unknown origin was observed 
in LASCO C3 imagery. This could not be optically correlated with 
any event on the visible disk in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery. Due 
to location and intensity, neither event is likely to have significant 
geoeffective consequences. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3323 3423
      Darwin              15   3323 3433
      Townsville          14   3323 3424
      Learmonth           14   3323 3423
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              17   3434 3323
      Casey(Ant)          24   4--4 4434
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             19   4323 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    18    active 
17 Feb    20    active 
18 Feb    20    active 
COMMENT: Active conditions observed at high latitudes under the 
influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind 
speed peaked at about 650 km/s and has remained near that level. 
Polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field has been variable, 
with no extended periods of southward direction. Similar conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions and periods of disturbance observed 
at high latitudes in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with 
      significant periods of disturbance. 


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   110    Enhanced 10-20% Equatorial/N. Aus region. Near 
                predicted monthly values S. Aus/NZ region. Depressed 
                5-10% at times Antarctic region. 
17 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb   100    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Equatorial spread-F observed local night hours. Mild 
depressions observed today after local dawn E. Aus/NZ region. 
Antarctic regions can expect slightly depressed conditions with 
considerable local and temporal variability. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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