[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 29 10:47:17 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 528 may produce an isolated low level M
class flare. This is the only region of significant magnetic
complexity on the visible disk. Recurrence suggests the return
of a coronal hole structure into geoeffective position about
Dec 31.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 3323 2233
Darwin 10 3223 2233
Townsville 11 3232 3234
Learmonth 14 3323 2343
Culgoora 8 2222 2233
Canberra 12 3323 2334
Hobart 11 3323 2233
Casey(Ant) 24 4--- 4343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 DEC :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3323 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 12 Unsettled
31 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The elevated solar wind stream of unknown origin maintained
velocities above 500 km/s over the UT day. The southward IMF
Bz component observed late in the UT day Dec 27 turned northward
early on Dec 28 and remained with that polarity over most of
the UT day. Isolated minor to major storm periods were observed
in the first half of the UT day at high latitudes only. Expect
quiet to unsettled activity levels today, with isolated storm
periods possible at high latitudes. Recurrence suggests a return
to active conditions about Dec 31.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions for the next two
days. Degraded HF condtions mid to high latitudes expected 31
Dec to 01 Jan, possibly extending to 11 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 120 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec 110 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next two days
with significant enhancements in propagation conditions observed
at low to mid latitudes after local dawn today. Periods of sporadic-E
and spread-F conditions observed and expected at high latitudes.
Recurrence suggests that degraded HF conditions may be experienced
31 Dec to 11 Jan, for southern region Aus/NZ only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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