[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    1928UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84
COMMENT: Solar region 528 produced the impulsive M1 flare. Further 
chance for isolated M class flares. Solar wind conditions nominal. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 1222
      Darwin               6   2222 1222
      Townsville           4   2212 1112
      Learmonth            5   2212 1221
      Culgoora             7   2322 1212
      Canberra             7   2322 1212
      Hobart               6   2322 1111
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--4 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 DEC : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     8    Quiet 
28 Dec     8    Quiet 
29 Dec     8    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next three days 
with enhanced regional MUFs and a quiet geomagnetic field. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    59700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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