[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 139/93


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94
COMMENT: Solar region 528 continues to grow and has the potential 
for isolated M-class activity, but has been mostly quiet so far. 
Solar wind speed declined from 500 to 400km/sec over the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2321 2321
      Darwin               7   2221 2322
      Townsville           7   1221 2321
      Learmonth            7   2221 2321
      Culgoora             5   1220 2221
      Canberra             7   1320 2322
      Hobart               6   1320 2221
      Casey(Ant)          16   3442 3321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 DEC : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2213 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     8    Quiet 
26 Dec     8    Quiet 
27 Dec     8    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
26 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec   110    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected next three days 
with enhanced regional MUFs and a quiet geomagnetic field. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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