[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 20 10:17:38 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Regions 525 and 528 produced some C-class flare activity
around the mid part of the UT day. Both regions remain capable
of M-class flare activity. Surging again observed about the East
solar limb indicating approaching active regions. An "L" shaped
coronal hole is now rotating into geoeffective position in the
Western solar hemisphere. The Earth should enter the high speed
solar wind stream from this feature within the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 1121 1012
Darwin 4 1221 1123
Townsville 2 0111 1012
Learmonth 1 1110 1001
Culgoora 2 1111 1011
Canberra 2 1110 1012
Hobart 2 1121 0002
Casey(Ant) 7 3-31 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 8 1323 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 20 active
21 Dec 18 active
22 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Geomagnetic activity
was at mostly quiet levels today. Solar wind parameters have
declined to very low levels. An equatorial coronal hole with
north polar extension is now moving into geoeffective position.
An increase in geomagnetic activity due to high speed wind stream
effects is anticipated on 20-21 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed over the UT day
and prevailing at time of report issue today. The Earth is likely
to enter another high speed coronal hole wind stream within the
next 24 hours. Expect periods of degradation at high latitudes,
becoming more widespread later at mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 60 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
22 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Generally enhanced
HF propagation conditions observed, especially during local night
hours. Persistent and intense sporadic-E conditions observed
at times in S Aus/NZ regions. Possible degradations may occur
at high latitudes later in the UT day due to anticipated geomagnetic
disturbance from a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Disturbances
will become more widespread later as solar wind parameters intensify.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high)
X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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