[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 16 09:22:24 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Very low           Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN    98/45             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined slowly over the UT day and 
is now at 650km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field again fluctuated mildly southward over the UT 
day. Solar wind speed is expected to decline further today as 
the Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. However, 
another coronal hole, a north polar extension transequatorial 
hole, is visible in the Sun's eatsern solar hemisphere in SOHO 
EIT 284 imagery. This Earth is expected to enter the wind stream 
from this hole around 18/19 Dec. Also visible in EIT imagery 
is the apparent return of old regions 507 and 508, which were 
488 and 486 respectively on their first transit. These solar 
regions were much less active on their previous transit and so 
a mild increase to moderate solar activity may be experienced 
in coming days. In particular old region 508 was M1 flare active 
as it left the disk at latitude S19 on 02/03 Dec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   4334 4222
      Darwin              10   3223 3222
      Townsville          19   4334 4232
      Learmonth           22   4335 4322
      Culgoora            14   3333 4222
      Canberra            17   3334 4233
      Hobart              17   4334 4223
      Casey(Ant)          22   4--4 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 DEC : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            93   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             110   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             24   4334 4544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
17 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Dec    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 58 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Isolated active periods 
expected today then declining activity as the Earth leaves the 
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Another coronal hole wind 
stream is exopected to induce active periods from late 18 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: General trend of improving HF conditions are likely 
at mid to high latitudes over the next day few days as the Earth 
leaves the coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec    45    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Dec    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 19-20 December. Mild depressions 
again possible after local dawn for southern Aus/NZ region. MUFs 
are expected to generally return to near predicted monthly values 
over coming days, as the Earth leaves the coronal hole high speed 
wind stream. Another mild to moderately disturbed interval from 
a coronal hole wind stream is expected late 18 to 20 Dec. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 743 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   291000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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