[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 3 10:49:59 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1308UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Several
C-class and an M-class flares were observed- most from
region 508, which is on the western limb at S19. The
M1.4(1308UT) and a C7.2(0948UT) both came from region 508.
The C7.2 flare was followed by a partial halo CME on the
South-western limb and a long duration X-ray enhancement.
This seems to have caused today's >10MeV proton event, which
is currently in progress. The CME doesn't appear to be
earthward directed. The solar wind speed showed a gradual
increase from 410 km/s to 480 km/s (approx) during the
first half of the UTday and then decreased gradually to
380 km/s (approx) during the second half of the day. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor fluctuations around the normal value until
about 1000UT and then remained mostly slightly positive
during the rest of the day. A coronal hole is taking
geo-effective position and its effect may strengthen the
solar wind stream for a few days starting late on 04 December
or on 05 December. The solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next few days. One more low M-class flare (probably
from region 508) has just been observed at the time of issuing
this report. No further comment can be made about the flare
at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods recorded at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 2332 2012
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 4 1222 2013
Learmonth 9 -342 2013
Culgoora 5 2222 2001
Canberra 7 2332 2002
Hobart 7 2332 2002
Casey(Ant) 12 ---4 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 DEC :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2333 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 7 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
04 Dec 9 Quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
05 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet level with isolated unsettled periods on 03 December
and most part of the day 04 December. However, the geomagnetic
activity may start to increase in the late hours on 04 December
or on 05 December due to a coronal hole taking geoeffective
position. Active periods are likely on 05 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 02 12 2003 1505UT and is
in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Poor-normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low and mid latitudes for the next two days. PCA event
is in progress. HF conditions are expected to remain degraded
for most part of the UT day today at high latitudes due to
the continuing >10 MeV proton event. An anticipated enhancement
in the geomagnetic activity late on 04 December or on 05
December may cause depressions in MUFs and degradations in
hf condition during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 50
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 105 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 105 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Dec 75 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next two days.
Periods of minor to mild depressions and degradations may
be observed on 05 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 99200 K
Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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