[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:31:57 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 153/108

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class 
flares were observed - the largest being a C4.6 at 0011UT. 
The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 400 
km/s to 500 km/s (approx) by 0900UT and it remained nearly 
steady between 450 and 500 km/s (approx) during the rest 
of the UTday. This increase in the solar wind speed may be 
attributed to the effect of the transequatorial coronal hole 
that is in a geoeffective position now. The effect of this 
coronal hole is expected to continue on 01 December and 
start declining on 02 December. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained moslty 
moderately positive during the first half of the UT day 
and mildly negative during the rest of the day. Region 507, 
which has been the largest region on the disk for the last 
several days, has started to rotate behind the limb. The 
complete passage of this region may be expected to reduce 
the possibility of major solar activity in the coming few 
days as no other major region is expected to appear on the 
solar disk during the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3322 3333
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          12   2332 3333
      Learmonth           11   2322 3334
      Culgoora            11   3222 3334
      Canberra            12   3322 3333
      Hobart              12   3322 3333
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--- 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2223 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    13    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible. 
02 Dec    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible on high latitudes. 
03 Dec     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: The effect of the high speed transequatorial coronal 
hole induced solar wind stream seems to have enhanced the 
geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels with brief active 
periods recorded on some high latitude locations. This effect 
is expected to continue on 01 December and start declining 
possibly on 02 December. The geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with possibility 
of active periods on 01 December and possibly on 02 December. 
The geomagnetic activity is expected to show a gradual decline 
thereafter and come down to mostly quiet levels by 03 December. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on low and mid latitudes during the next two days. Minor to 
mild depressions and degradations are possible at high 
latitudes during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Nov   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      brief periods of minor depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   105    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 5%. 
02 Dec   108    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by 10%. 
03 Dec   110    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Australian/NZ regions during the next three days. 
However, minor depressions and degradations are possible at 
times in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 01 December due to an 
expected continued slight enhancement in the geomagnetic 
activity on this day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    67700 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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