[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: There no regions of significant complexity on the visible 
solar disk at present. Region 424, which produced a number of 
M-class events during its last rotation, is due to return today. 
However, it was declining in magnetic complexity towards the 
end of the previous rotation. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 2222
      Darwin              11   -234 222-
      Townsville           5   1122 2222
      Learmonth            5   1122 2122
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               8   1223 3122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   3214 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 Aug    12    Unsettled 
30 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated storm periods observed at low latitudes. Solar 
wind parameters continue to decline from previous coronal hole 
wind stream effects. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has maintained a mild southward bias over the 
previous 24 hours, but declining solar wind speed has resulted 
in mostly unsettled conditions, which should continue for the 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated
      extended periods of absorption. 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
30 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild overnight depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Overnight absorption observed at sub-Antarctic and some Antarctic 
stations. Expect generally good HF conditions with a chance of 
isolated periods of degradation today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   191000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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