[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 25 09:46:12 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Region 
436(N08W26) produced a C1.2 flare at 0417UT. The solar wind 
stream is showing signs of weekening. The solar wind speed 
decreased from 750 km/s to 575 km/s (approx.) during the UT 
day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated between +5nT and -5nT (approx.) throughout 
the UT day- mostly remaining southwards. Solar region 436 is 
still the largest region on the disk. Region 436 has potential 
for C-class flare and also has a slight chance of producing 
isolated low M-class flare. The solar wind stream is expected 
to further slow down during the next three days as the coronal 
hole effect subsides. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to active with 
short isolated periods of minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   3344 3243
      Darwin              21   4-44 3332
      Townsville          11   2233 3233
      Learmonth           12   2333 3233
      Canberra            20   225- ----
      Hobart              18   2244 4243
      Casey(Ant)          24   3444 3353
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 AUG : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             119   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             44   4575 5344     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug    20    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
26 Aug    17    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
27 Aug    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity has started to decline as 
the coronal hole effect is subsiding now. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to gradually decline further during 
the next three days as the solar wind stream weekens further. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed at high latitudes during the next two days. Minor 
degradations are also possible at mid latitudes during this 
period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Aug    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values  with relatively 
      long periods of depressions and degradations 


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    59    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    62    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    65    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs are possible in Southern 
Australian/NZ regions during the next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 750 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   285000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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