[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Active to Severe Storm Levels 

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      46   4456 5555
      Darwin              43   4456 5545
      Townsville          53   4357 5555
      Learmonth           56   5357 5555
      Canberra            61   4467 5-55
      Hobart              46   446- 5-54
      Casey(Ant)          27   5445 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 AUG : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            71   (Active)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        62
           Planetary             82                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   2101 4445     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
20 Aug    12    Unsettled 
21 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The IMF has been predominantly southward during the 
past past 24 hours with values of -15nT sustained for several 
hours. This has resulted in significant levels of geomagnetic 
activity with severe storm levels being observed. The IMF appears 
to be returning to nominal values which should result in abating 
geomagnetic activity levels. Mostly unsettled to active levels 
are expected for 19 August with minor storm periods possible 
at times. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Poor-normal    Poor-fair     
20 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed for mid-high 
latitudes during 18 August as the result of significant geomagnetic 
activity. Significant depressions are again possible for 19 August, 
however, HF conditions should be slowly returning to normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Aug    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug    60    Depressed 15-30% at times for southern regions, 
                with northern regions mostly near predicted monthly 
                values. 
20 Aug    65    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Aug    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant depressions have been observed for southern 
regions during 18 August as the result of significant geomagnetic 
activity. Significant depressions are again possible for 19 August, 
however, HF conditions should be slowly returning to normal. 
Due to northern regions being significantly enhanced the observed 
Australian T-index does not reflect the significant depressions 
observed during 18 August. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:    25900 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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