[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is elevated due to a coronal hole and 
fluctuated between 650 and 700km/sec over the UT day. Solar wind 
conditions are expected to show a declining trend by the end 
of today. The north-south component, (Bz), of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, (IMF), was on average mostly northward by about 
5nT (some southward fluctuations of up to 10nT were observed 
early in the uT day, but then settled to a northward orientation). 
Northward IMF conditions reduce geoeffectiveness of disturbances. 
Solar regions 431 and 424 produced some C class activity over 
past 24 hours. Region 424 will rotate off-disk in a couple of 
days. Region 431 is in the south-east solar quadrant, and appears 
stable. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4434 4322
      Darwin              15   3333 432-
      Townsville          20   4434 4322
      Learmonth           19   3434 4322
      Canberra            22   4444 4322
      Hobart              17   3334 4322
      Casey(Ant)          24   4544 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 AUG : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           67   (Active)
      Canberra           139   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             144   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2222 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    18    active 
14 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
15 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for interval 11-13 August. Forecast activity levels 
from anticipated coronal hole wind stream have not been reached, 
presumably due to northward IMF conditions. Forecast activity 
levels for today have therefore been reduced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions today, then improving.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    80    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regonal MUFs have remained near normal over past 24 
hours, and are now expected to remain as such for the rest of 
the period. Degradations in HF cimmunications quality may be 
experienced during local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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