[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind declined from 650 to 550km/sec over the UT 
day. A further decline in wind speed is expected today, before 
a gradual increase in wind speed later in the UT day or early 
on 12 Aug, due to another coronal hole now just passing solar 
central meridian. Solar regions 425 (south-west quadrant) and 
431 (south-east quadrant) produced some minor C class flaring 
over past 24 hours. Isolated low level M class flares are possible 
from these regions. A solar filament was reported to have erupted 
from the solar disk in the past 24 hours, however no mass ejection 
was discernable in LASCO imagery, so this event is assumed to 
have been minor. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   4233 2222
      Darwin              12   323- ----
      Townsville           9   4222 2222
      Learmonth            9   4122 2222
      Canberra            11   4223 2222
      Hobart               9   3223 3212
      Casey(Ant)          18   4-43 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3344 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug    14    Initially quiet to unsettled, then becoming active. 
12 Aug    20    Active to minor storm 
13 Aug    25    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for interval 11-13 August. A gradual trend of increasing 
geomagnetic activity is expected over next two days. Activity 
induced by solar coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
12 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
13 Aug      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild to moderately degraded interval is expected to 
begin around late 11-12 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Aug    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some blanketing sporadic E observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug    70    near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    55    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Initially good HF codnitions. Then mild to moderately 
degraded conditons expected for southern Aus/NZ region on 12 
Aug. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to remain near to 15% 
above predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 677 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   218000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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