[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 26 09:53:14 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0540UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. One M1 flare
from region 346(N16E61), observed at 0540UT, was associated
with a Type II and a partial halo CME. Region 338(N18W58)
also produced several C-class-flares , the largest being a
C7.5 at 1945UT. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from approximately 560 km/s to approximately 500 km/s during
the UT day. The solar wind stream may be strengthened further
due to an expected coronal hole activity possibly starting
late on 26 or on 27 April. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continued to show mild to
moderate fluctuations between the north and south directions
almost the whole day. Region 338 still holds potential for
M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 19 3444 3324
Darwin 13 3333 3324
Townsville 15 3334 3324
Learmonth 16 3334 3333
Canberra 19 3444 3324
Hobart 19 3444 3324
Casey(Ant) 19 4443 3234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 95 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 24 3345 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
27 Apr 25 Mostly active to minor storm. Isolated major
storm periods possible.
28 Apr 23 Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 24 April
and is current for interval 25-26 April. The geomagnetic
activity remained enhanced today due to strong solar wind
stream with speed upto 560 km/s (approx). A possible glancing
effect of the weak partial halo CME observed on 23 April may
keep the goemangnetic activity enhanced on 26 April. The CME
activity, associated with the M3 flare observed on 24 April,
may also have weak glancing effect on the geomagnetic activity
on 27 April. A coronal hole solar wind stream may also start
to show its effect on late 26 or on 27 April, which may
continue to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise to active to minor
storm levels with possibility of isolated major storm periods
due to this coronal hole effect during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions are possible over the
next few days,especially at mid and high latitudes, due to
anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant depressions and
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 77
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 80 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 70 Depressed 5-10%.
28 Apr 73 Depressed 5-10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on
24 April and is current for interval 25-26 April. Mild to
moderate depressions are possible at times over the next
few days due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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