[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/1N    0106UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M2/1F    1556UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 133/87

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Two M-class flares 
(M5.1 at 0106UT and M2 at 1556UT) were observed from region 
338 (N18W32). The M5 flare was associated with a Type II 
and a partial halo CME. Region 339 also has been quite 
active and produced several C-class flares. The solar wind 
speed showed a gradual decrease from 540 km/s to 480 km/s 
(approx) over the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field showed minor to mild fluctuations 
between the north and south directions throughout the UT day. 
Region 338 is growing and holds potential for M-class activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled.  Isolated active periods observed. 

Estimated Indices 23 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2333 3233
      Darwin              11   2333 2233
      Townsville          12   2333 3233
      Learmonth           11   2333 2232
      Canberra            14   2334 3232
      Hobart              14   2334 3232
      Casey(Ant)          20   3443 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            87   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              85   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             22   4444 3334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
25 Apr    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
26 Apr    20    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 23 April 
and is current for interval 23-24 April. The geomagnetic 
activity may rise to 'active to minor storm level' on late 
25 April or early 26 April due to possible glancing effect 
of a partial halo CME associated with an M5 flare observed 
early on 23 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times over the next 
few days due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Apr    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr    95    near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    90    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    88    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 
23 April and is current for interval 23-24 April. Mild 
depressions are possible at times over the next few days 
due to anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 571 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   219000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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