[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2322 2232
      Darwin               8   2222 2233
      Townsville           7   2222 2222
      Learmonth            7   2221 2232
      Canberra             7   2222 2222
      Hobart               6   1321 2122
      Casey(Ant)          14   3442 2132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 APR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            91   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20   2544 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    15    Unsettled 
21 Apr    12    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline with geomagnetic 
conditions expected to decline to mostly quiet to unsettled over 
the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
21 Apr   100    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
22 Apr   100    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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