[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 156/110

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Five C-class 
flares were observed- the largest being a C6.5 from region 
324(S11W35). This flare started at 1013UT, peaked at 1027UT 
and ended at 1056UT. Region 324 was the most active region 
today and it produced three C-class flares. The solar wind 
speed showed fluctuations between 440 and 490 km/s (approx) 
throughout the UT day. The north-south component of the 
inter-planetary magnetic remained slightly but mostly 
northwards during the first half of the UT day. Bz showed 
mild fluctuation throughout the second half of the UT day 
between north/south directions and it is continuing to do 
so at the time of this report. The coronal hole activity is 
expected to decline further today. Region 321(N08W54) and 
324(S11W35) are growing and hold potential for isolated 
M-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled. Isolated active periods observed. 

Estimated Indices 03 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2222 3323
      Darwin               9   2222 3323
      Townsville           9   2222 3324
      Learmonth           11   3222 3333
      Canberra             9   2222 3323
      Hobart              10   2322 3323
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-43 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              69   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             20   2444 4334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
05 Apr    10    Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible. 
06 Apr     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: Recent coronal hole induced activity and hence 
the geomagnetic activity are expected to decline further 
during the next 24 hours. However, if Bz keeps fluctuating 
predominantly in the southward direction, the decline in 
the geo-magnetic activity may be less than otherwise expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms expected to improve over the
next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Apr    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of mild to moderate degradations
      and depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    96    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Apr   100    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Apr   102    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally improved HF conditions expected for 
southern Aus/NZ region during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  
Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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