[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind speed currently around 500km/sec and is expected 
to drop furtehr over the next 24 hours as the Earth leaves the 
coronal hole high speed wind stream.Solar activity was fairly 
minimal with region 318(S16W62) producing some minor activity 
over past 24 hours. Isolated low level M class flare possible 
from solar region 324. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 2333
      Darwin              10   3222 2334
      Townsville           8   2222 2324
      Learmonth           11   3322 2333
      Canberra            10   3223 2322
      Hobart              11   3223 2332
      Casey(Ant)          16   -442 233-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             31   3334 6644     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    14    Unsettled to active 
03 Apr    10    Unsettled 
04 Apr     9    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent coronal hole induced activity expected to decline. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms expected to imrove over next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  76

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr    90    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally improved HF conditions expected for southern 
region Aus. Some southern region sites depressed 15-20% during 
local day yesterday. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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