[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Isolated M class activity possible from solar region 
134. Solar wind conditions nominal past 24 hours. Solar coronal 
hole now past central meridian of solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 0112
      Townsville           6   2222 1222
      Learmonth            7   3222 1222
      Canberra             4   2122 0112
      Hobart               4   2221 0111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3332 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   3212 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep     7    Quiet 
30 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
01 Oct    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active periods are possible 30 Sep - 01 Oct due to coronal 
hole currently in southern hemisphere of solar disk. However, 
the 27 day recurrent pattern of geomagnetic activity is not strong. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible at high latitudes 30 Sep to 
01 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
01 Oct   145    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
in HF comms quality possible local night hours 30Sep to 01 Oct 
southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    16700 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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