[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: A faint semi-halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery 
first visible around 0740UT. Initially north-east directed, it 
later spread around the northern hemisphere of the solar disk. 
Due to only small brightening at 0557UT in region 134 on Culgoora 
H-Alpha imagery and the lack of signature on the Culgoora radiospectrograph, 
it is assumed to be a backside-disk event. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1222
      Townsville           4   2111 1122
      Learmonth            4   2111 1223
      Canberra             4   1111 1222
      Hobart               4   1211 1222
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              6   2211 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep     7    Quiet 
28 Sep     7    Quiet 
29 Sep     7    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected with elevated 
MUFs and quiet magnetic conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    34500 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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