[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 159/113

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 20 Sept. A few low 
C-class flares were observed. Region 119(S14W36) holds 
potential to produce isolated M-class flare. The solar wind 
speed has shown a gradual decrease from 430km/s to 390km/s 
approximately over the UT day. Bz remained mostly northwards 
during the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2212
      Townsville           5   2112 2212
      Learmonth            5   2112 2212
      Canberra             5   2122 2212
      Hobart               5   2122 2212
      Casey(Ant)          13   4--3 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   3211 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep     7    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
23 Sep     7    Mostly quiet. 
24 Sep     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has slowed down from 430km/s 
to 390km/s (approximately) during the UT day 21 September. 
The geo-magnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly 
at quiet level during the next three days with some possibility 
of rising upto usettled levels for isolated intervals of time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain normal 
during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Sep   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep   146    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
23 Sep   148    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
24 Sep   148    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are expected 
to remain mostly normal over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    51200 K  
Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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