[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 20 11:27:48 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity remained low on 19 Sept. Several
low level C-class flares were observed. A TypeII radio sweep,
from region 125(S08E55), was associated to a C4.7 flare,
which peaked at 0528UT/19Sept. The partial halo CME,
associated with these events is not considered to be
earth directed. Region 119 (S14W10) also produced C-class
flares and is growing. Region 119 and 105(S08W83) have
potential to produce isolated M-class flares. The solar
wind speed has shown a gradual increase from 550km/s to
770km/s approximately over the UT day. The increase in
the solar wind speed seems to be due to the CME activity
observed on 17 September. A weak sudden impulse (12nT)
was observed at 0623UT. Bz remained predominantly
northwards for almost the whole day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 15 3223 4423
Townsville 15 3222 3522
Learmonth 11 3223 ----
Canberra 14 3223 4413
Hobart 12 3222 4322
Casey(Ant) 21 44-4 3423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4323 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 15 Mostly unsettled to active.
21 Sep 12 Mostly unsettled.
22 Sep 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at the unsettled to active level on UTday 20
September as the effect of the CME activity, observed
on 17 September sub-sides. A weak (12nT) impulse was
observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0623UT on 19 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of mild degradations may be expected for
high latitudes on 20 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day
with short periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 138 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Sep 144 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Sep 148 Enhanced by 10 to 20%.
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are expected
to remain mostly normal over the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 299000 K
Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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