[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 20 11:27:48 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 165/119


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity remained low on 19 Sept. Several 
low level C-class flares were observed. A TypeII radio sweep,
from region 125(S08E55), was associated to a C4.7 flare, 
which peaked at 0528UT/19Sept. The partial halo CME, 
associated with these events is not considered to be 
earth directed. Region 119 (S14W10) also produced C-class 
flares and is growing. Region 119 and 105(S08W83) have 
potential to produce isolated M-class flares. The solar 
wind speed has shown a gradual increase from 550km/s to 
770km/s approximately over the UT day. The increase in 
the solar wind speed seems to be due to the CME activity 
observed on 17 September. A weak sudden impulse (12nT) 
was observed at 0623UT. Bz remained predominantly 
northwards for almost the whole day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3223 4423
      Townsville          15   3222 3522
      Learmonth           11   3223 ----
      Canberra            14   3223 4413
      Hobart              12   3222 4322
      Casey(Ant)          21   44-4 3423
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   4323 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled to active. 
21 Sep    12    Mostly unsettled. 
22 Sep    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at the unsettled to active level on UTday 20 
September as the effect of the CME activity, observed 
on 17 September sub-sides. A weak (12nT) impulse was 
observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0623UT on 19 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Periods of mild degradations may be expected for 
high latitudes on 20 September. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day
      with short periods of depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep   138    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep   144    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
22 Sep   148    Enhanced by 10 to 20%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are expected 
to remain mostly normal over the next two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   299000 K  
Bz:   5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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