[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 194/146


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: A strong Type II radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora 
spectrograph at 0204 UT. LASCO imagery subsequently showed a 
narrow mass ejection directed to the north west, and with limited 
expansion away from the solar disc implying non- geoeffectiveness. 
Another CME was observed, first visible in LASCO imagery around 
0840UT, directed predominantly to the south west. Solar region 
origin is unclear. There is slight possibility a weak shock in 
the solar wind from this event may be experienced late 19 Sep. 
Incresing background X-ray flux level suggests possible isolated 
M class flare activity over the next few days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1323 3223
      Townsville           8   1223 3223
      Learmonth            8   1223 3222
      Canberra            11   2323 3233
      Hobart              11   1333 3223
      Casey(Ant)          10   2333 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2222 3231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Sep    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Outside chance of weak impulse late 19 Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep   155    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Sep   155    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Sep   155    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    53800 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060