[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 25 09:59:49 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. The largest event
was a C7.4 flare from region 162(N26W04). This region is still
the largest region on the disk and holds potential for M-class
flare. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained southward for most of the day. The solar wind
speed rose from 400 to 700 km/s (approx) after 0900UT until the
end of the day. The large coronal hole on the solar disc seems
to be the reason for this increase in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 28 4344 5444
Darwin 25 4344 4444
Townsville 27 3334 5544
Learmonth 34 4345 5454
Canberra 34 5344 4555
Hobart 32 3345 5544
Casey(Ant) 20 3344 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 61 (Active)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10 2222 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 26 Mostly active. Minor storm conditions possible.
26 Oct 18 Mostly active. Minor storm conditions possible.
27 Oct 15 Mostly unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 24 October
and is current for interval 24-29 October. Coronal hole induced
activity seems to have started earlier than expected. The solar
wind speed rose from 400km/s to 700 km/s (approx) between 0900UT
and the end of the UT day. Bz remained southward for most of
the day and resulted in an enhancement in geomagnetic activity
upto minor storm level. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at active level for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
26 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: A coronal hole induced degradation is showing up now.
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be experienced
during the next 2 days on high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 110 near predicted monthly values (Northern Aust. Regions)
25 Oct 60 depressed 5 to 15% (Southern Aust. Regions)
26 Oct 110 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 115 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 24 October
and is current for interval 25 October only. Depressions in MUFs
have been observed in southern Australian regions this morning.
This is due to an earlier than expected rise in the geomagnetic
activity due to a coronal hole. Depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in Southern Australian regions
during the next 2 days. HF conditions in northern Australian
regions are not expected to have any significant effect of this
rise in the geo-magnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 57700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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