[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 6 10:13:36 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.9 2100UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1/SF 1046UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: A Type II sweep was observed at 2057UT on 5 Oct in association
with the M6 flare from region 0139. Further flare activity is
expected from regions 137 and 139.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 19 2324 5423
Townsville 16 2214 5323
Learmonth 20 3324 5423
Canberra 18 2224 5423
Hobart 22 2324 5523
Casey(Ant) 13 3333 3324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 43
Planetary 48 7565 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 16 Unsettled to active
07 Oct 12 Unsettled
08 Oct 20 Unsettled to active with possible minor storm
periods.
COMMENT: Sustained periods of southward IMF of unknown origin
have continued to produce storm levels of geomagnetic activity
for the past few days. Mostly unsettled to active levels are
expected for 6 October however there is still the chance of futher
isolated minor storm periods. At the time of issue LASCO coronagraph
imagery was unavailable for a full analysis of recent flare/Type
II activity from region 139. Due to the easterly location of
this region it is assumed that any CME activity associated with
the flare/type II activity would be predominantly eastward directed
and therefore not very geoeffective. There is still the chance
of a glancing blow from this recent activity which may combine
with a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream to produce minor
storm periods on 8 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed at times for mid-high
latitudes for 5 October as the result of elevated geomagnetic
activity. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be again observed
at times for mid-high latitudes for 6 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for
northern Australian regions and depressed 10-20%
at times for Southern regions.
07 Oct 120 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for
northern Australian regions and depressed 10-20%
at times for Southern regions.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 5 October
and is current for interval 5-7 October (SWFs) . Degraded HF
conditions were observed at times for mid-high latitudes for
5 October as the result of elevated geomagnetic activity. Mildly
degraded HF conditions may be again observed at times for mid-high
latitudes for 6 October and again for 8 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 25400 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list