[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION:*YELLOW* 
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0221UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 146/100


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            160/114
COMMENT: Region 137 produced an M class flare at around 0220UT. 
Two mass ejections were observed in LASCO imagery, one at around
03UT was southeast-directed and the other at 06UT was northwest-directed. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 105 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 4 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   4343 4544
      Townsville          26   4343 4543
      Learmonth           27   4333 4554
      Canberra            26   4343 4544
      Hobart              26   4343 4544
      Casey(Ant)          21   4-53 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 OCT : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        31
           Planetary             44   6764 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct    16    active 
05 Oct    12    Unsettled 
06 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Two CME's observed in LASCO imagery yesterday do not 
appear to be earth directed and are not expected to be geoeffective. 
North-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, 
has remained moderately southward over the second half of the 
UT day Oct 3. Associated geomagnetic activity observed overnight. 
Further activity possible Oct 4 as IMF Bz remains southward. 
A weak (21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0644UT on 03 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% over UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct   100    Northern Australian region near predicted monthly 
                values. Southern Australian/Antarctic regions 
                depressed 10-30% at times. 
05 Oct   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
06 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Possible periods of degraded HF conditions as IMF Bz 
remains southward. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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