[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class flares 
were observed, C8.4 from region 198(S17W84) being the largest 
one, which peaked at 1136UT/28 November. The solar wind speed 
is still enhanced and it mostly remained between 480 and 520 
km/s during the UT day. The inter-planetary magnetic field
remained mildly southward almost the whole day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Mostly unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3333
      Darwin              27   4--- ----
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           10   3222 2333
      Canberra            13   3333 2332
      Hobart              15   3333 3332
      Casey(Ant)          22   4--4 3343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            77   (Active)
      Hobart             102   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             21   4444 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
30 Nov    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
01 Dec    17    Mostly unsettled to active. 
COMMENT: Continuously enhanced solar wind speed and 
southward Bz are still holding the geo-magnetic activity 
at mostly unsettled level. The current geo-magnetic 
disturbance is expected to decline during the next 
24 hours. The geo-magnetic activity may show a rise after 
that due to the expected coronal hole effect. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on 29 November UT day. Minor to mild degradations 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be expected 
at mid- and high-latitude locations on 30 November and 
01 December due to a coronal hole effect. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      periods of degradations and depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov   105    Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
                by 5 %. 
30 Nov   100    Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                by 5%. 
01 Dec    98    Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                by 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to remain mostly normal on 29 November UT day. Minor to mild 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed in Southern Australian regions on 30 November and 01 
December (UT days). 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 545 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   142000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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